USDA Lowers 2024/25 U.S. and Global Cotton Estimates

The USDA’s latest report for the 2024/25 cotton season indicates a significant reduction in U.S. cotton figures. U.S. cotton production is forecasted at 15.1 million bales, a drop of 1.9 million from the previous estimate. The report cites a decrease in planted area by 500,000 acres, now totaling 8.6 million acres due to a 23% abandonment rate, up 6 percentage points from last month. The yield is estimated at 840 pounds per acre, slightly lower than before.

U.S. exports are expected to fall by 1 million bales, with ending stocks projected to decrease by 800,000 bales, totaling 4.5 million bales, or 32% of use. The average upland farm price for the 2024/25 season has been adjusted to 66 cents per pound, down 2 cents from July’s estimate. Revisions to the 2023/24 balance sheet show an increase of 150,000 bales in exports and a 100,000 bale rise in ending stocks.

Globally, the 2024/25 cotton balance sheet reflects reductions in production, consumption, and stocks. World production is down by 2.6 million bales, largely due to lower outputs in the U.S. and India. Global consumption has decreased by nearly 1 million bales, primarily in China. Beginning stocks are cut by 3.5 million bales, and ending stocks are reduced by 5 million bales to 77.6 million bales. The “A” Index for world cotton prices is now 81.5 cents per pound, down 2 cents from July.