Heavy Rains Hit Cotton Yields In India & Pakistan

In 2024, cotton production across key regions is seeing mixed weather conditions, with heavy rains in the east and drought in the west. While concerns loom over U.S. cotton-producing states like Texas, the global market, including ICE cotton futures, expects overall higher production. However, recent monsoon rains in India and Pakistan could trigger significant price fluctuations in their local markets.

In India, the Ministry of Agriculture reported that as of August 28, 2024, weekly rainfall in major cotton-growing regions reached 131.3 mm, 88.2 mm above normal levels. Since June, cumulative rainfall has been 30% higher than average, potentially affecting the cotton harvest. Meanwhile, Pakistan is also experiencing heavy monsoon rains, with provinces like Sindh and Balochistan bearing the brunt. Excessive rainfall during the cotton flowering stage, coupled with high temperatures, threatens to reduce yields.

Severe flooding in Hyderabad has damaged crops, displaced thousands and caused significant casualties. The Cotton Association of India estimates production for the 2023-24 season at 5.4 million tonnes, while the USDA predicts 5.7 million tonnes. However, for the 2024-25 season, Indian cotton output is expected to fall to 5.1-5.2 million tonnes due to a 9% decrease in planting area and adverse weather.

Pakistan’s cotton production for 2024-25 is projected to drop 10%, with the USDA estimating 1.31 million tonnes. Local forecasts by the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association suggest an even lower output of 1.02-1.105 million tonnes.

The decline in cotton planting and flood damage has raised concerns about cotton supply in both countries, increasing the demand for imports. With ongoing weather challenges, the market remains wary of recovery efforts and pest threats in the affected regions.