Port Cargo Volumes Set To Rebound Briefly Before New Tariffs Kick In, Says NRF Report
U.S. container imports are expected to rise in July after a sharp decline in late spring, but new tariffs set to take effect in August could trigger another downturn, according to the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates.
Imports at major U.S. ports reached 1.95 million TEU (twenty-foot equivalent units) in May, down 11.8% from April and 6.4% year-over-year, the lowest level since May 2024. June volumes are projected to recover to 2.06 million TEU, while July could rise to 2.36 million TEU, up 2.1% YoY.
However, the outlook turns negative from August, with import volumes forecast to drop 10.4% YoY, September expected to fall 19.9%, October 19.2%, and November 21.3%, the steepest monthly declines since 2023. The downturn reflects not just the upcoming tariffs but also high 2024 import volumes driven by fears of port strikes.
The decline comes amid ongoing trade tensions. While President Trump delayed “reciprocal” tariffs until August 1, he has also announced tariffs of up to 40% on multiple countries, adding to business uncertainty. “Retailers are rushing to bring in goods before tariffs hit, but the lack of clarity is challenging, especially for small businesses,” said NRF’s Jonathan Gold.
Hackett Associates’ Ben Hackett warned that “erratic trade policies and geopolitical volatility” are undermining supply chain stability.
Despite the turbulence, imports in first-half of 2025 are projected to reach 12.63 million TEU, up 4.5% YoY slightly better than last month’s forecast but still below earlier projections made before the April tariff announcements.
