Trade Deal by November? India–US Talks Regain Momentum
India and the United States formally resumed trade negotiations on Tuesday, with both sides describing the discussions as “positive and forward-looking.” The commerce ministry said the talks covered “various aspects of the trade deal” and that efforts would be intensified to reach an early conclusion of a mutually beneficial agreement.
The US delegation was led by Brendan Lynch, chief negotiator from the Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR), while India was represented by Rajesh Agarwal, special secretary in the commerce department.
Talks, which began in March-April, had stalled amid Washington’s tariff measures but have picked up again following recent political outreach between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Donald Trump. Social media exchanges between the two leaders were widely seen as setting the stage for a thaw.
Despite the renewed momentum, progress hinges on the rollback of punitive tariffs imposed by Washington. The US has levied an additional 25% duty on Indian goods, on top of a general 25% tariff, citing India’s continued oil imports from Russia despite the Ukraine war.
According to the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI), a Delhi-based think tank, the US is eager to secure a deal but continues to use “disparaging language” towards India. “The challenge will be how much India concedes without undermining regulatory autonomy or economic sovereignty,” the think tank noted in a report.
India, for its part, has drawn a hard line on agriculture and dairy, with PM Modi reiterating that he will “protect farmers, no matter the cost.”
The US had earlier flagged delays in talks as a trigger for its tariff action, which has complicated timelines for the deal. A pact initially expected by September is now likely to see only a first-stage agreement by November.
The pressure is mounting on both sides, with Indian exports to the US falling to US$ 6.86 billion in August from US$ 8.01 billion in July. The full effect of higher tariffs, which took effect at the end of August, will be reflected in trade data for the coming months.
While the tone of the latest round of talks suggests willingness on both sides, negotiators face the twin challenge of reconciling US tariff demands with India’s insistence on safeguarding domestic interests. Analysts say that unless Washington signals flexibility on duties, the road to a comprehensive trade deal will remain bumpy.
Still, officials on both sides are betting that political will at the highest level could help break the deadlock and pave the way for at least an interim pact before year-end.
