Decline In Cotton Sowing In Kharif Season Raises Export Concerns

India’s textile industry is grappling with a significant challenge as reduced cotton sowing during the current kharif season raises concerns about meeting the government’s ambitious export targets. As of September 13, cotton sowing has dropped to 11.24 million hectares, down from 12.36 million hectares in the same period last year.

This decline raises questions about the readymade garment (RMG) sector’s ability to secure additional export orders, especially amid the ongoing crisis in Bangladesh, according to sources familiar with the situation.

With cotton production already under strain in recent years, the forecast for this season looks bleak. A source indicated that “there has been a contraction in production, and this year’s low sowing levels will further reduce cotton bale output.”

There is some hope for improvement, as sowing might reach 11.6 million hectares with an expected addition of 300,000 hectares from Tamil Nadu, Telangana and Karnataka. However, this increase is unlikely to compensate for the overall decline.

This reduction in cotton output poses a threat to India’s already volatile textile export performance. India’s textile exports, which were valued at $41.12 billion in FY22, fell to $35.55 billion in FY23 and further decreased to $34.40 billion in FY24. Given these circumstances, the government’s goal of exceeding $40 billion by FY25 now appears increasingly challenging.

Economics expert Abhash Kumar remarked, “The low sowing and reduced production make achieving the export target very challenging.”

India’s cotton production peaked in FY20 at 36 million bales, but has since been on a downward trend. Although there was a brief recovery in FY23, production fell again to 32 million bales in FY24.