Global Cotton Output Will Be Lower In 2025–26 As Consumption Stabilises, Says USDA
Global cotton production for the 2025–26 marketing year is projected at 119.4 million bales, down nearly 400,000 bales from earlier expectations, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) in its January 2026 World Markets and Trade report. Lower output in India, the United States, Argentina and Turkey is expected to more than offset higher production in China.
Global cotton consumption is forecast to rise marginally to 118.9 million bales, supported primarily by increased mill use in China, while lower demand in Turkey and Nicaragua tempers overall growth. Despite a year-on-year increase in global production of nearly one per cent, consumption is projected to remain largely flat.
Global cotton trade is expected to remain broadly stable at around 43.8 million bales, with higher exports from Australia and India compensating for reduced shipments from Argentina and Turkey. On the import side, higher purchases by India are offset by reduced demand from Turkey and Nicaragua.
Global ending stocks are forecast to decline by nearly 1.5 million bales to 74.5 million bales, reflecting lower carryover inventories in India, the United States, Australia, Argentina and Turkey, despite higher stocks in China.
US cotton exports for the 2025–26 season (August 2025–July 2026) are forecast at 12.2 million bales, around 300,000 bales higher than the previous season. During the first five months of the marketing year, shipments reached 3.2 million bales, exceeding last year’s pace, even as export sales lag historical levels.
As of January 1, outstanding US export sales stood at 7.0 million bales, compared with 8.2 million bales a year earlier. USDA attributed the slowdown to spinning mills increasingly purchasing cotton only for near-term needs amid stagnant global textile demand and evolving tariff regimes. Brazil’s growing dominance as the leading cotton exporter during the early part of the season has also weighed on US sales momentum.
