NRF Sees 4.4% Retail Sales Growth In 2026
The National Retail Federation has projected U.S. retail sales to grow 4.4% year-on-year in 2026, reaching $5.6 trillion, supported by resilient consumer spending and stable economic fundamentals.
The forecast, developed in collaboration with Oxford Economics, was unveiled at NRF’s annual State of Retail & the Consumer event. It surpasses the 10-year average growth rate of 3.6% (excluding pandemic years), indicating a stronger outlook despite ongoing global uncertainties.
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said consumer spending will continue to act as a key driver of economic growth, building on its steady performance in 2025. However, geopolitical tensions and trade policy challenges remain potential risks.
Spending growth is expected to be uneven, with higher-income households contributing the most across retail categories. Inflation is likely to stay elevated in the first half of the year before easing later, while the labour market is projected to soften slightly, with unemployment remaining below 4.5%.
Despite muted consumer sentiment, NRF noted that strong income growth, healthy household balance sheets and overall economic stability are expected to sustain retail activity through 2026.
The forecast, presented in nominal terms, suggests that a significant portion of the projected growth will reflect real gains rather than inflation alone.
