Sustainability Enters An Age Of Divergence
Despite a staggering $17 trillion invested in sustainable technologies over the past decade, progress remains uneven across sectors, technologies and businesses, according to Bain & Company’s fourth edition of The Visionary CEO’s Guide to Sustainability.
The global sustainability transition is entering a new phase, one defined less by a uniform march towards greener technologies and more by sharply diverging outcomes.
Investment in sustainability reached a record $2.4 trillion in 2025, but the bulk of that capital remained concentrated in a handful of sectors. Green energy, buildings and mobility accounted for 90% of total investment, while agriculture, manufacturing and materials, and natural capital together received less than 10%. The three relatively under-funded sectors account for roughly 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions, highlighting the growing disconnect between where capital is flowing and where emissions remain concentrated.
The divergence is equally visible in technology. Bain’s Green Technology Performance Index, which compares actual deployment in 2025 with forecasts made a decade earlier, found that only three of 37 sustainable technologies—solar, batteries and electric vehicles—outperformed expectations. As many as 29 technologies fell short of their forecasts.
According to Bain, the technologies that underperformed encountered one or more barriers involving technology, consumer behaviour or policy. This suggests that capital alone cannot guarantee the success of a sustainability transition. Technologies need to become commercially viable, consumers need to adopt them and policy frameworks need to support their deployment.
“Ten years into the Paris Agreement, the world has made commendable sustainability achievements, but this summer’s record-breaking heat is a reminder that we need to do more,” said Jean-Charles van den Branden, Bain’s Global Head of Sustainability. “Today’s CEO must recognize this age of divergence for what it is: not a sign of failure, but an opportunity to place the right bets for the future.”
While corporate investment and technology deployment are moving at different speeds, consumer concern about sustainability is rising again. Bain’s survey of 7,500 consumers across the US, UK, Italy, Brazil and Indonesia found that 85% are concerned about environmental sustainability, up from 79% last year. Extreme weather events, including heatwaves, floods and wildfires, remain the biggest environmental concern.
Consumers are also increasingly changing their behaviour. Some 83% of respondents now practise three or more sustainable lifestyle habits, compared with 73% in 2023. Even among consumers who describe themselves as unconcerned about sustainability, nearly half now practise three or more sustainable habits.
Interestingly, sustainability is not always the primary motivation. Economic considerations, health and resilience often influence consumer behaviour more strongly. Consumers said they were willing to pay an average 18% premium for sustainable products, rising to 24% when sustainability is combined with a health benefit. More than half also said they shop locally more than before, primarily to support local businesses and strengthen security of supply.
Climate resilience is emerging as another important business consideration. Disaster losses are rising by 5–7% annually, while a substantial gap remains between total and insured losses. Bain’s research suggests that companies better prepared for climate disruption could gain market share and stronger revenues as disruptions intensify.
Artificial Intelligence presents another striking example of divergence. Bain found that executives expect AI to account for around 11% of global energy consumption three years from now, while consumers expect it to account for 19%. Bain’s climate-economic modelling, however, forecasts a much smaller share of 0.7%.
Yet the perception gap has real business consequences. Nearly two-thirds of consumers surveyed say concerns about AI’s energy impact are already influencing their behaviour, including limiting what they share, switching platforms, abandoning certain tools or speaking publicly about their concerns.
The companies themselves are also splitting into different groups. Among businesses Bain classifies as “shapers”—those with greater AI and sustainability maturity—90% see AI as a major opportunity to advance sustainability goals. Among laggards, the proportion has fallen to 41% from 57% last year.
The message for CEOs is therefore changing. Sustainability is neither retreating nor advancing uniformly. Instead, investment, technology, consumer behaviour and corporate action are moving at different speeds.
For businesses, the opportunity lies in identifying where those forces are beginning to converge, scaling technologies that have demonstrated commercial potential and preparing assets and supply chains for climate disruption. As Bain puts it, the emerging “age of divergence” is not simply a sustainability challenge—it is becoming a source of competitive differentiation for companies capable of recognising where the next opportunities will emerge.
