April 20, 2024

US Cotton Forecast: Production Up, Consumption Down

In the latest report on the 2023-24 US cotton balance sheet, there is a marginal decrease in consumption, but a noticeable uptick in production and ending stocks. Production saw a rise of 273,000 bales, reaching 13.1 million bales, with lower output in Texas offset by increases elsewhere. Domestic mill use saw a decrease of 100,000 bales, reflecting recent consumption trends, while exports remain unchanged. The ending stocks climbed by 400,000 bales to 3.2 million bales, equivalent to 22.5 per cent of usage. The season-average price for upland cotton in 2023-24 took a 3-cent hit, now standing at 77 cents per pound.

The global cotton balance sheet for 2023-24 presented a mixed scenario with lower consumption but higher production and stocks. Beginning stocks rose by 200,000 bales, primarily due to a 300,000-bale increase in India’s 2022-23 production, based on data from their Committee on Cotton Production and Consumption. The global production for 2023-24 saw an increase of 850,000 bales, driven by larger crops expected in Afghanistan, United States, Argentina and Paraguay, despite reductions in Spain and Mexico.

The global consumption experienced a 500,000 bales dip, with cuts in Vietnam, Turkey and the United States. World trade remained relatively stable, with a 500,000-bale increase in China’s projected imports offset by declines in Vietnam, Turkey, Korea and Thailand. The global cotton ending stocks for 2023-24, at 81.5 million bales, are projected 1.6 million bales higher than in October. Notably, China contributed significantly to this increase, with higher imports expected, largely for the State Reserve.

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