CAI Raises India’s Cotton Crop Estimate To 337 Lakh Bales For 2025-26
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised upward its cotton pressing estimate for the 2025-26 season to 337 lakh bales of 170 kg each, an increase of 3 lakh bales from its previous estimate of 334 lakh bales, reflecting improved crop availability in key producing regions.
The latest assessment, finalised by the CAI Crop Committee at its meeting held on 27 July 2026, also points to stronger domestic consumption and significantly higher imports, indicating robust demand from India’s textile industry despite a challenging global trade environment.
Domestic cotton consumption for the 2025-26 season has been revised upward by 10 lakh bales to 348 lakh bales, compared to the earlier estimate of 338 lakh bales. The revised figure is also substantially higher than the previous season’s consumption of 319 lakh bales, underlining the recovery in spinning and textile activity across the country.
At the same time, CAI has sharply increased its cotton import estimate by 13 lakh bales to 60 lakh bales, up from the earlier projection of 47 lakh bales. The revised import estimate is 19 lakh bales higher than the 41 lakh bales imported during the previous season, highlighting tighter domestic availability of quality cotton and growing demand from mills.
In contrast, cotton exports are expected to decline. CAI has lowered its export estimate for the current season to 15 lakh bales, down from 18 lakh bales estimated earlier and also lower than the previous year’s export level.
The revised balance sheet shows total cotton supply for the 2025-26 season at 452.59 lakh bales, compared to 392.59 lakh bales in the previous season. The increase is driven by higher production and imports, which together have strengthened overall availability in the domestic market.
As a result, the available surplus at the end of the season is projected at 104.59 lakh bales, significantly higher than the 73.59 lakh bales recorded in 2024-25.
CAI has also raised its closing stock estimate for September 30, 2026, to 89.59 lakh bales, up by 4 lakh bales from the previous estimate and 34 lakh bales higher than the closing stock of the previous season.
Maharashtra Drives Crop Revision
Among the major cotton-producing states, Maharashtra has emerged as the key contributor to the upward revision in production estimates. The state’s cotton pressing estimate has been increased to 118 lakh bales, 27 lakh bales higher than the previous season and 3 lakh bales above the earlier estimate for the current year.
Nationally, cotton pressing for the 2025-26 season is now estimated at 337 lakh bales, compared with 312.4 lakh bales recorded in 2024-25.
The revised estimates indicate a cotton market characterised by stronger mill demand, rising imports and comfortable stock levels. While lower exports reflect reduced global competitiveness and tighter domestic demand-supply dynamics, higher consumption and increased availability are expected to support India’s textile industry through the remainder of the season.
