Hormuz Reopens Under Fragile Ceasefire, Shipping Backlog Persists

A tentative ceasefire between the US and Iran has raised hopes of reopening the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, but uncertainty continues to cloud the movement of more than 800 vessels stranded across the Persian Gulf.

The breakthrough agreement, announced just ahead of a US-imposed deadline by Donald Trump, could allow limited maritime passage after weeks of disruption triggered by escalating conflict. The waterway had effectively been shut since late February, when US and Israeli strikes prompted Iran to tighten control over the route, severely restricting vessel movement and rattling global energy supply chains.

While both sides have signalled a reopening, key terms remain unclear. Iran has indicated a two-week window for safe passage under certain “technical limitations,” while US statements have promised a “complete, immediate and safe” resumption of transit. Questions remain around implementation timelines, security guarantees, and potential transit conditions.

Despite the announcement, shipowners are proceeding cautiously. Industry bodies such as the Japanese Shipowners’ Association are reviewing the agreement details before advising members. Experts warn that even under ideal conditions, normal shipping flows will take time to resume.

Before the crisis, around 135 vessels transited the strait daily. That number has since dropped sharply, leaving hundreds of ships — particularly energy carriers — waiting on both sides of the corridor. Data indicates that the stranded fleet includes over 400 crude and fuel tankers, alongside liquefied gas carriers and vessels transporting dry and containerised cargo.

Insurance and risk concerns remain a major hurdle. Market participants stress that operators, insurers, and crews need confidence that risks have genuinely eased before resuming operations at scale. As a result, any restart is expected to be gradual rather than immediate.

Early signs of movement have emerged, with a handful of vessels attempting transit under close observation. However, analysts suggest Iran may retain significant control over traffic flows, including decisions on vessel clearance and transit conditions.

The situation is particularly critical for liquefied natural gas shipments, with no fully loaded LNG carriers successfully crossing the strait since the conflict began. Given that roughly one-fifth of global LNG trade passes through Hormuz, prolonged disruption could have far-reaching implications for energy markets.

Beyond commercial concerns, the crisis has also taken a toll on seafarers. According to the International Maritime Organization, nearly 20,000 crew members remain stranded onboard vessels in the region, facing mounting challenges including supply shortages, fatigue, and psychological stress.

While the ceasefire marks an important first step toward restoring maritime activity, industry stakeholders remain wary, viewing the situation as fragile and highly fluid.