US Import Cargo Volumes Seen Lower In H1 2026 Amid Tariff Uncertainty
Imports at major US container ports are expected to remain below last year’s levels during the first half of 2026, amid continued uncertainty around tariffs, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report released by the National Retail Federation in partnership with Hackett Associates.
According to Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the National Retail Federation, uncertainty around trade policy continues to pose challenges for retailers.
“The Supreme Court has struck down IEEPA tariffs, but other tariffs have already been announced and more are likely to follow, so uncertainty continues for retailers,” Gold said. He added that businesses require clear and predictable trade policies for long-term planning, warning that tariffs ultimately raise costs for businesses and prices for consumers.
Last month, the Supreme Court of the United States ruled against the administration’s use of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act. Following the decision, Donald Trump announced a temporary 150-day 10% tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, with the possibility of raising the rate to 15%. The administration is also considering additional Section 301 trade investigations.
Meanwhile, the impact of the ongoing conflict involving Iran on US container imports remains unclear. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said the immediate effect on US-bound container cargo is expected to be limited because relatively little containerised trade originates from the region.
However, he cautioned that rising oil and gasoline prices linked to the conflict could fuel inflation, potentially reducing consumer spending and manufacturing activity in the United States over time, which could eventually weigh on import volumes.
