India-Linked Tariff Refunds From US Seen At US$ 10–12 Billion: GTRI
India-linked tariff refunds on exports to the United States are estimated at US$ 10–12 billion, following the opening of a US$ 166 billion claims window by US authorities for duties imposed during the administration of Donald Trump that were later struck down by courts, according to the Global Trade Research Initiative.
The refund process, which opened on April 20, allows only US-based importers to file claims, leaving Indian exporters without a direct legal route to recover dues. As a result, exporters must rely on negotiations with American buyers to secure a share through rebate-sharing arrangements, revised pricing or improved contract terms.
While the headline figure indicates a significant opportunity, the report cautions that actual gains will depend on exporters’ bargaining power and their ability to renegotiate commercial agreements. Sectors such as textiles and apparel, engineering goods and chemicals are expected to account for the bulk of refunds, having been among the worst impacted by the tariff hikes.
The refund mechanism is being administered by US Customs and Border Protection through its CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries) system. The initial phase covers unliquidated entries and those finalised within the past 80 days, while older claims will be processed in subsequent phases.
US officials estimate that about $127 billion is already owed to eligible businesses in the first phase. However, the process is expected to be lengthy, with importers required to submit detailed documentation, including customs filings and tariff payment records. The system is handling around 53 million entries from 330,000 importers, with refunds likely to take 60–90 days after approval.
Although newer tariffs have been imposed under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, the court ruling prevents earlier collections from being validated, setting the stage for a prolonged reimbursement cycle.
