India’s Cotton Output Steady At 302.25 Lakh Bales: CAI
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has released its November 2024 estimate for the ongoing 2024-25 cotton season, which commenced on October 1, 2024. The association has maintained its cotton pressing projection at 302.25 lakh bales of 170 kg each, equivalent to 317.18 lakh running bales of 162 kg each. This estimate, compiled using data from members of 11 state associations and trade sources, indicates a steady outlook for India’s cotton production.
As of the end of November 2024, the total cotton supply is estimated at 108.41 lakh bales of 170 kg each. This figure includes pressing of 69.22 lakh bales, imports of 9.00 lakh bales, and an opening stock of 30.19 lakh bales. Cotton consumption during this period has been recorded at 54.00 lakh bales, while export shipments were reported at 4.00 lakh bales. The closing stock at the end of November is estimated at 50.41 lakh bales, including 28.41 lakh bales with textile mills and 22.00 lakh bales held by the Cotton Corporation of India (CCI), Maharashtra Federation, and other stakeholders such as traders and ginners.
For the entire 2024-25 season, the CAI projects total cotton supply at 357.44 lakh bales, comprising an opening stock of 30.19 lakh bales, pressing of 302.25 lakh bales, and imports of 25 lakh bales. Domestic consumption is forecasted to remain steady at 313.00 lakh bales, while exports are expected to decline significantly to 18 lakh bales, a drop of 10.36 lakh bales compared to the previous season. This reduction in exports reflects challenges in the global market and increased domestic consumption needs.
The CAI also highlighted regional variations in cotton pressing estimates. Telangana and Karnataka reported increases of 2 lakh bales and 1 lakh bales, respectively, while the North Zone saw a decline of 2 lakh bales. These adjustments reflect localized changes in production dynamics influenced by weather conditions, farming practices and market factors.
One of the notable trends this season is the significant increase in cotton imports, estimated at 25 lakh bales, which is 9.80 lakh bales higher than the previous year. This rise underscores India’s growing reliance on imported cotton to meet its domestic demand. On the other hand, exports are expected to decline sharply, with the 2024-25 season’s projection of 18 lakh bales marking a substantial drop from last year’s 28.36 lakh bales. This reduction is attributed to global market pressures and competitive challenges faced by Indian cotton in international markets.
The closing stock for the 2024-25 season, projected at 26.44 lakh bales, is lower than the previous season’s closing stock of 30.19 lakh bales. This decrease reflects tighter supply dynamics and the balancing act between domestic consumption and export demands.
The CAI Crop Committee, which convened on December 17, 2024, emphasized the need to monitor pressing numbers closely in the coming months. Any adjustments required based on changing market conditions will be incorporated into future reports. These estimates provide a comprehensive view of the Indian cotton market’s current landscape, highlighting its evolving challenges and opportunities, particularly in terms of balancing domestic and international requirements.
India’s cotton industry continues to navigate a complex environment marked by shifting production patterns, rising import reliance and declining exports, making it crucial for stakeholders to adapt to these dynamics to ensure long-term sustainability and growth.
